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First Days of Trump Administration: Did ICE Targeting Change?

Published Feb 27, 2025

While Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has been waging a media campaign on its "stepped up enforcement," details have been sketchy to non-existent for independently verifying many of these claims. Given the dearth of information, the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) — now located at tracreports.org — has examined the latest case-by-case Immigration Court records.

This report focuses on new Notices to Appear (NTA) issued by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) dated after Trump assumed office (January 20-January 31).[1] These are compared to DHS NTAs dated from January 1-January 19 while former President Biden was still in office.

NTA records are a particularly useful data source because we have a continuous series going back in time which we can keep updated on a monthly basis to monitor immigration enforcement activity in the coming months. It is also among the very few sources with geographic detail as each NTA issued is associated with the city, state, and zip code of the noncitizen’s residence recorded in Immigration Court records where hearing notices are sent.

However, DHS arrests resulting in the issuance of an NTA make up only an unknown proportion of DHS enforcement actions during these initial 12 days and can include some enforcement actions that began earlier. So we cannot reliably generalize to all immigration enforcement actions that took place.

In this report we focus on this question: did ICE targeting change in the first days of the Trump administration? No pejorative meaning is attached to the existence of targeting. It is an inherent part of the discretion that all law enforcement agencies exercise since they cannot be in all places at the same time. However, some types of targeting can indeed be discriminatory. Past reporting consistently shows that ICE specifically concentrates enforcement in certain locations and communities for a variety of reasons.[2]

DHS NTAs Continued To Be Issued

Presently DHS needs a removal order from an Immigration Judge in order to deport many arrestees. The date on an NTA records the day DHS officials issued the form to the noncitizen who was apprehended. A time series day-by-day plot for the dates in January 2025 court records on these new NTAs is shown in Figure 1.[3] While the number of NTAs dropped, the Trump administration continued to send many cases to Immigration Court to obtain authorization to deport individuals it had arrested.

Court data before Trump’s inauguration indicate that DHS issued an average of 2,586 NTAs during January weekdays.[4] Upon taking office, Trump immediately canceled all appointments on CBP One, a phone app introduced under the Biden administration which immigrants had used to make appointments at ports of entry to seek entry with asylum and other claims. After closing off entry in this manner, NTAs dropped by a little over half (55%). For the January 20-31 period newly issued NTAs averaged 1,180 during weekdays but at that point were not continuing to decline.

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Figure 1. Date of Notices to Appear (NTAs) in Immigration Court Issued by Department of Homeland Security in January 2025

Measuring Targeting

While overall NTAs declined, different groups had different experiences. NTA issuance to some groups saw less of a drop, while other groups experienced a greater decline. We focus on identifying which groups experienced notable differences.[5] The report looks first at differential targeting by residence – county and state – of the noncitizen, and then by nationality.

To aid readers in identifying the direction and relative magnitude of differences from what would be expected in the absence of targeting, this report uses an index that measures the relative change from what was expected. This index is measured in percentage point changes and is our “relative change from expected” index.[6] What is “expected” is what the actual national drop in NTAs was under Trump. Where a group experienced a parallel drop to what was seen nationally, the group’s index would be 0. Small differences from zero (0) can simply reflect chance variation. Report tables flag a change up or down of at least 10 percent as notable.[7]

Clearly, ICE did not have the capacity to immediately send out arrest teams to every community across the country. Thus, the selection of which communities to target initially was clearly an important ingredient in who ICE arrested in these initial days. Results are, of course, also related to how these arrest teams were employed – were they knocking on doors out in the community or picking up noncitizens already being held by other law enforcement agencies? Many factors may have influenced the receptions that ICE arrest teams received in different communities.

Targeting Based on Where an Immigrant Lived: County by County

While news headlines saw Chicago with early immigration raids once Trump took office, residents of Cook County where Chicago is located actually showed lower than expected numbers of NTAs issued during the last 12 days of January 2025. The proportion of NTAs targeting residents of Cook County was notably lower than expected by 10 percentage points on our index.

Table 1 lists targeting index scores for the counties that saw at least 1,000 NTAs issued to their residents in January. Appendix Table A provides details on smaller counties receiving at least 100 NTAs.

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Similar to Cook County in Illinois, NTAs issued in Dallas County, Texas ended in January with a notably lower number of NTAs than would be expected if it had been similar to the national pattern. It registered -16 percent on the targeting index, a larger relative drop than for Cook County. Denver County, Colorado also showed a notable decline of 13 percent on the targeting index.

There were also counties with notable proportional increases under Trump. These included San Diego County, California (+21 percent on the targeting index). Pinal County, Arizona’s proportion under Trump was overrepresented by a whopping +34 percent on this same index. This meant its residents saw a much larger number of NTAs than would be expected. This contrasted with neighboring Maricopa County in Arizona where Phoenix is located which had fewer NTAs issued than the overall national pattern – down by 8 percent on the targeting index. Pima County in Arizona where Tucson is located had relatively few NTAs under Biden or Trump with only a total of 106 NTAs during all of January 2025. But during the Trump administration NTAs were proportionately down by 6 percent as measured by this index.

Harris County, Texas, where Houston is located and the county with the most NTAs in the country in January 2025, saw lower-than-expected NTAs issued once Trump assumed office – minus 6 percent on this targeting index. The same was true for Miami-Dade County, Florida. Its residents also experienced lower than expected NTAs issued, registering minus 6 percent on the index.

Other metropolitan areas showed little change. Residents in Los Angeles County in California resembled national trends with a targeting index of exactly zero (0). Queens County, New York in the New York City metropolitan area also had a targeting index score of zero (0). Its numbers thus closely resembled the national pattern. When the five counties making up New York City were combined, New York City ranked on top with the highest number of NTAs issued during both the Biden and Trump periods. Under Trump, residents in these metropolitan areas closely followed national trends. For NYC its targeting index was similar to national trends registering just plus 2 percent in its targeting index.

Table 1. Counties with Notices to Appear (NTAs) in Immigration Court Issued by Department of Homeland Security in January 2025
Counties with at least 500 NTAs Number of NTAs Targeting Index**
Total Biden* Trump*
United States 58,588 45,639 12,949
Harris County, TX 2,590 2,166 424 -6%
Miami-Dade County, FL 2,567 2,153 414 -6%
Cook County, IL 2,217 1,940 277 down -10%
Los Angeles County, CA 1,837 1,440 397 0%
Not Known 1,675 1,257 418 3%
Dallas County, TX 1,162 1,091 71 down -16%
San Diego County, CA 951 541 410 up 21%
Broward County, FL 901 716 185 -2%
Queens County, NY*** 819 635 184 0%
Denver County, CO 671 608 63 down -13%
Bexar County, TX 648 564 84 -9%
Cameron County, TX 644 350 294 up 24%
Live Oak County, TX 636 303 333 up 30%
Pinal County, AZ 622 273 349 up 34%
Maricopa County, AZ 610 526 84 -8%
Hillsborough County, FL 606 527 79 -9%
Tarrant County, TX 598 560 38 down -16%
Kings County, NY*** 582 443 139 2%
Orange County, FL 567 476 91 -6%
Palm Beach County, FL 553 463 90 -6%
Travis County, TX 537 481 56 down -12%
* Biden covers January 1-19 and Trump includes January 20-31.
** This index – the relative change from expected -- is calculated as the percent of NTAs issued under Trump for the 12 days at the end of January for that location minus the national percent of NTAs under Trump during this period. Report tables flag a change up or down of at least 10 percent as notable.
*** When the five counties making up New York City are combined, NYC ranks before Los Angeles with1,957 NTAs and had a targeting index of 2 percent above national patterns.

Targeting Based on Where an Immigrant Lived: State by State

Table 2 provides a comparison of changes by state – zooming out a bit on the level of geographic granularity examined. To be conservative, again at least a 10-percentage point change up or down was required to be tagged in Table 2. None of the top 10 states showed that large of a change. Differences tend to average out as larger areas are compared. Here, however, smaller percentage point index changes could and did alter some state rankings.

The top three states – Texas, Florida, and California – remained the top three. Migrants in Texas and California received greater ICE enforcement activity than the overall proportion by 3 percent on this index. Over the last 12 days of January, Florida featured 4 percentage points lower enforcement than the national baseline under Trump and also dropped below California in the number of NTAs issued during the Trump presidency.

Illinois and New York were in fourth and fifth place based on the volume of NTAs issued during the Biden administration. However, expected numbers for Illinois were 8 percentage points lower than expected on our index, while New York was up 2 percent in comparison to national averages under Trump. Again, rankings changed.

Arizona also increased its ranking, and vaulted above Illinois for sheer numbers, with an index of 11 percent greater enforcement than the national average. The number of NTAs issued in New Mexico (up 20 percent) and Mississippi (up 21 percent) increased. However, each of these states had fewer NTAs issued during all of January and thus ranked lower in rankings based on the total number of NTAs.

Residents of states with proportional drops under Trump – all more than 10 percent on the index scale – included North Carolina, Tennessee, and Utah. See Table 2 for details on additional states.

Table 2. States with Notices to Appear (NTAs) in Immigration Court Issued by Department of Homeland Security in January 2025
States Number of NTAs Targeting Index**
Total Biden* Trump*
United States 58,588 45,639 12,949 0%
Texas 11,930 8,992 2,938 3%
Florida 7,714 6,312 1,402 -4%
California 6,381 4,799 1,582 3%
Illinois 3,155 2,717 438 -8%
New York 2,899 2,186 713 2%
Georgia 2,044 1,582 462 1%
New Jersey 1,875 1,493 382 -2%
Not Known 1,675 1,257 418 3%
Colorado 1,497 1,236 261 -5%
Louisiana 1,484 1,093 391 4%
Arizona 1,447 975 472 up 11%
Virginia 1,138 820 318 6%
North Carolina 955 852 103 down -11%
Tennessee 932 852 80 down -14%
Washington 921 695 226 2%
Pennsylvania 919 639 280 8%
Indiana 863 702 161 -3%
Massachusetts 770 617 153 -2%
Maryland 751 553 198 4%
Michigan 713 538 175 2%
Ohio 705 549 156 0%
Utah 697 627 70 down -12%
Kentucky 593 517 76 -9%
Nevada 586 480 106 -4%
South Carolina 498 389 109 0%
New Mexico 465 289 176 up 16%
Minnesota 462 353 109 1%
Mississippi 455 256 199 up 22%
Wisconsin 453 319 134 7%
Kansas 425 339 86 -2%
Oregon 419 346 73 -5%
Connecticut 374 314 60 -6%
Missouri 369 285 84 1%
Alabama 333 292 41 down -10%
Oklahoma 312 282 30 down -12%
Nebraska 256 189 67 4%
Iowa 229 197 32 -8%
Arkansas 178 163 15 down -14%
Rhode Island 138 107 31 0%
Idaho 105 84 21 -2%
Delaware 82 65 17 -1%
Maine 62 50 12 -3%
District of Columbia 61 46 15 2%
New Hampshire 53 32 21 up 18%
South Dakota 47 42 5 down -11%
North Dakota 37 30 7 -3%
Wyoming 32 29 3 down -13%
Montana 24 23 1 down -18%
Hawaii 22 15 7 up 10%
Puerto Rico 21 3 18 up 64%
Vermont 15 8 7 up 25%
West Virginia 13 6 7 up 32%
Alaska 4 3 1 3%
* Biden covers January 1-19 and Trump includes January 20-31.
** This index – the relative change from expected -- is calculated as the percent of NTAs issued under Trump for the 12 days at the end of January for that location minus the national percent of NTAs under Trump during this period. Report tables flag a change up or down of at least 10 percent as notable.

Changes in Nationalities Targeted

Experiences also varied by the nationality of the noncitizen. This was likely an indirect result of many factors including where individuals and families happened to live as well as information ICE had available which made them harder or easier to locate and take into custody.

Table 3 provides index scores for nationalities who had at least 100 NTAs issued during January. There was a substantial drop in the relative proportion of immigrants from Venezuela and Cuba. Venezuelan immigrants who had topped the list of DHS-issued NTAs under Biden had an index of minus 12 percent reflecting below the share of NTAs expected given national trends. While overall DHS NTAs under Trump represented 22 percent of NTAs issued in January, immigrants from Venezuela represented just 10 percent. Individuals from Cuba had an index of minus 13 percent, experiencing much lower numbers of NTAs than the national pattern.

Other nationalities received more NTAs than expected based on national patterns. These included India and China, as well as Nicaragua. The relative proportion of Indian immigrants receiving NTAs was 17 percent above the national average on the index. Nicaraguans’ index was 15 percent more. Chinese noncitizens registered an index score of 13 percent above what would be expected based on the national pattern.

Nationalities that historically have smaller numbers receiving NTAs, also showed proportionately large jumps on the index of 20 percent or more. These included Nepal, Cameroon, Uzbekistan, and the Dominican Republic.

Little change was shown in the proportion of immigrants from Mexico, Honduras, and Columbia. See Table 3.

Table 3. Nationalities with Notices to Appear (NTAs) in Immigration Court Issued by Department of Homeland Security in January 2025
Nationalities with at least 100 NTAs Number of NTAs Targeting Index**
Total Biden* Trump*
All Nationalities 58,588 45,639 12,949
Venezuela 11,747 10,582 1,165 down -12%
Mexico 8,751 6,546 2,205 3%
Cuba 6,422 5,847 575 down -13%
Honduras 5,018 3,909 1,109 0%
Colombia 4,365 3,341 1,024 1%
Guatemala 3,970 2,791 1,179 8%
Ecuador 2,838 2,228 610 -1%
El Salvador 1,874 1,340 534 6%
Haiti 1,760 1,509 251 -8%
Nicaragua 1,369 855 514 up 15%
India 1,260 767 493 up 17%
China 1,076 698 378 up 13%
Peru 946 661 285 8%
Brazil 869 601 268 9%
Turkey 638 456 182 6%
Dominican Republic 454 264 190 up 20%
Russia 431 320 111 4%
Afghanistan 268 182 86 up 10%
Vietnam 260 180 80 9%
Nepal 233 128 105 up 23%
Chile 218 188 30 -8%
Bolivia 201 141 60 8%
Uzbekistan 186 103 83 up 23%
Egypt 185 113 72 up 17%
Cameroon 182 101 81 up 22%
Iran 175 103 72 up 19%
Armenia 171 113 58 up 12%
Bangladesh 142 85 57 up 18%
Ethiopia 128 68 60 up 25%
Pakistan 121 79 42 up 13%
Nigeria 121 69 52 up 21%
Jamaica 114 68 46 up 18%
Angola 112 73 39 up 13%
* Biden covers January 1-19 and Trump includes January 20-31.
** This index – the relative change from expected -- is calculated as the percent of NTAs issued under Trump for the 12 days at the end of January for that location minus the national percent of NTAs under Trump during this period. Report tables flag a change up or down of at least 10 percent as notable.

Conclusion

The Trump administration’s use of shifting and incomplete indices-- often without the underlying numbers but only reported in percentage terms – cannot be relied upon to tell the whole story of what actually is taking place. It is also important when comparing numbers from the Biden administration that definitional differences in how events are counted haven’t occurred. Otherwise, comparisons will be biased and not accurately reflect what has actually happened.

Continued empirical monitoring of what changes are taking place as more months pass will be essential. TRAC will continue tracking cases arriving at Immigration Court as February and March case-by-case court records become available. These will be made available in its free public web query tool New Proceedings Filed in Immigration Court.

Appendix Table A. Counties with Notices to Appear (NTAs) in Immigration Court Issued by Department of Homeland Security in January 2025
Counties with at least 100 NTAs Number of NTAs Targeting Index**
Total Biden* Trump*
United States 58,588 45,639 12,949
Harris County, TX 2,590 2,166 424 -6%
Miami-Dade County, FL 2,567 2,153 414 -6%
Cook County, IL 2,217 1,940 277 down -10%
Los Angeles County, CA 1,837 1,440 397 0%
Not Known 1,675 1,257 418 3%
Dallas County, TX 1,162 1,091 71 down -16%
San Diego County, CA 951 541 410 up 21%
Broward County, FL 901 716 185 -2%
Queens County, NY*** 819 635 184 0%
Denver County, CO 671 608 63 down -13%
Bexar County, TX 648 564 84 -9%
Cameron County, TX 644 350 294 up 24%
Live Oak County, TX 636 303 333 up 30%
Pinal County, AZ 622 273 349 up 34%
Maricopa County, AZ 610 526 84 -8%
Hillsborough County, FL 606 527 79 -9%
Tarrant County, TX 598 560 38 down -16%
Kings County, NY*** 582 443 139 2%
Orange County, FL 567 476 91 -6%
Palm Beach County, FL 553 463 90 -6%
Travis County, TX 537 481 56 down -12%
Montgomery County, TX 486 274 212 up 22%
Webb County, TX 476 246 230 up 26%
Salt Lake County, UT 455 404 51 down -11%
Polk County, TX 443 248 195 up 22%
Denton County, TX 435 403 32 down -15%
Gwinnett County, GA 433 381 52 down -10%
San Bernardino County, CA 414 295 119 7%
Frio County, TX 405 188 217 up 31%
Williamson County, TX 403 328 75 -3%
Stewart County, GA 387 170 217 up 34%
Jefferson County, MS 386 192 194 up 28%
Clark County, NV 384 341 43 down -11%
Essex County, NJ 375 297 78 -1%
Arapahoe County, CO 366 209 157 up 21%
Jefferson County, KY 364 335 29 down -14%
Marion County, IN 347 306 41 down -10%
El Paso County, TX 330 194 136 up 19%
Lee County, FL 324 268 56 -5%
Union County, NJ 318 257 61 -3%
Santa Clara County, CA 313 261 52 -5%
Davidson County, TN 312 280 32 down -12%
King County, WA 309 234 75 2%
Ouachita Parish, LA 306 201 105 up 12%
Riverside County, CA 296 263 33 down -11%
Bronx County, NY *** 278 187 91 up 11%
Duval County, FL 277 215 62 0%
Orange County, CA 275 228 47 -5%
LaSalle Parish, LA 264 186 78 7%
Kane County, IL 244 215 29 down -10%
Prince George's County, MD 244 187 57 1%
Mecklenburg County, NC 242 218 24 down -12%
New York County, NY *** 240 196 44 -4%
Osceola County, FL 239 207 32 -9%
Hidalgo County, TX 239 183 56 1%
Kern County, CA 236 178 58 2%
Imperial County, CA 236 74 162 up 47%
Jackson Parish, LA 230 171 59 4%
Shelby County, TN 230 223 7 down -19%
Suffolk County, NY 226 166 60 4%
Hennepin County, MN 225 154 71 9%
Wayne County, MI 224 186 38 -5%
Pierce County, WA 222 141 81 up 14%
Philadelphia County, PA 217 166 51 1%
Franklin County, OH 217 191 26 down -10%
Middlesex County, MA 216 185 31 -8%
Clearfield County, PA 211 78 133 up 41%
Polk County, FL 198 163 35 -4%
Alameda County, CA 196 172 24 down -10%
Hudson County, NJ 193 156 37 -3%
Otero County, NM 191 100 91 up 26%
Fairfax County, VA 187 129 58 9%
Johnson County, TX 187 92 95 up 29%
Jones County, TX 175 37 138 up 57%
Sacramento County, CA 174 120 54 9%
Will County, IL 164 139 25 -7%
Fairfield County, CT 163 146 17 down -12%
Winn Parish, LA 160 88 72 up 23%
Montgomery County, MD 157 103 54 up 12%
Multnomah County, OR 153 137 16 down -12%
Suffolk County, MA 152 131 21 -8%
Passaic County, NJ 151 111 40 4%
Middlesex County, NJ 148 120 28 -3%
Willacy County, TX 147 82 65 up 22%
Fresno County, CA 146 128 18 down -10%
DuPage County, IL 145 127 18 down -10%
Charlton County, GA 141 67 74 up 30%
Cobb County, GA 140 131 9 down -16%
Mercer County, NJ 139 118 21 -7%
San Mateo County, CA 135 129 6 down -18%
Utah County, UT 134 127 7 down -17%
Wake County, NC 133 120 13 down -12%
Collier County, FL 129 104 25 -3%
Plymouth County, MA 129 87 42 up 10%
Jefferson Parish, LA 128 108 20 -6%
Pasco County, FL 127 99 28 0%
Providence County, RI 125 94 31 3%
Lake County, IL 124 81 43 up 13%
Westchester County, NY 122 99 23 -3%
Sarasota County, FL 121 100 21 -5%
Fulton County, GA 121 106 15 down -10%
Adams County, CO 117 109 8 down -15%
Contra Costa County, CA 117 96 21 -4%
DeKalb County, GA 116 98 18 -7%
Oklahoma County, OK 114 101 13 down -11%
Baltimore city, MD 114 87 27 2%
Pinellas County, FL 113 83 30 4%
San Francisco County, CA 112 81 31 6%
San Joaquin County, CA 112 89 23 -2%
Tulsa County, OK 110 104 6 down -17%
Bergen County, NJ 109 86 23 -1%
Nassau County, NY 108 85 23 -1%
Oakland County, MI 106 87 19 -4%
Pima County, AZ 105 89 16 -7%
Manatee County, FL 104 91 13 down -10%
Milwaukee County, WI 104 91 13 down -10%
Snohomish County, WA 104 72 32 9%
Washington County, OR 103 87 16 -7%
Evangeline Parish, LA 102 89 13 -9%
Nye County, NV 101 41 60 up 37%
* Biden covers January 1-19 and Trump includes January 20-31.
** This index – the relative change from expected -- is calculated as the percent of NTAs issued under Trump for the 12 days at the end of January for that location minus the national percent of NTAs under Trump during this period. Report tables flag a change up or down of at least 10 percent as notable.
*** When the five counties making up New York City are combined, NYC ranks before Los Angeles with1,957 NTAs and had a targeting index of 2 percent above national patterns.
Footnotes
[1]^ While ICE had published on social media daily counts of “arrests,” TRAC has been unable to find data on how many of these ICE took steps where a final order of removal did not exist to actually seek the migrant’s removal.
[2]^ We caution that these records for the initial days of the Trump presidency do not necessarily foretell future patterns. News reports indicate that ICE arrests after an initial push in late January actually declined in the first half of February and led to the very recent removal of Acting ICE Director Caleb Vitello for failing to deliver on Trump administration immigration arrest goals. See also February 25, 2025 TRAC report on ICE arrests and removals showing declining numbers.
[3]^ All case types are included in these counts including 2,931 credible fear review cases reaching the Immigration Court.
[4]^ Holidays and weekends usually have a reduced level of enforcement activity and this continued to be true. To see this typical pattern for longer time periods see, for example, February 2017 TRAC report. Also see June 2018 TRAC report.
[5]^ Why this occurred is beyond the scope of this report.
[6]^ This index – the relative change from expected — is calculated as the percent of NTAs issued under Trump for the 12 days at the end of January for that location minus the national percent of NTAs under Trump during this period.
[7]^ This point was chosen for simplicity. We would expect groups such as states because of their larger number of NTAs to have less chance of variation than counties within states given their smaller number of NTAs. The same is true for larger metropolitan areas as compared with smaller and less populous counties.
TRAC is a nonpartisan, nonprofit data research project founded in 1989. Its public website has moved from trac.syr.edu to tracreports.org. For more information, contact info@tracreports.org.